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  1. Date: Mon, 28 Feb 94 05:43:17 PST
  2. From: Info-Hams Mailing List and Newsgroup <info-hams@ucsd.edu>
  3. Errors-To: Info-Hams-Errors@UCSD.Edu
  4. Reply-To: Info-Hams@UCSD.Edu
  5. Precedence: Bulk
  6. Subject: Info-Hams Digest V94 #219
  7. To: Info-Hams
  8.  
  9.  
  10. Info-Hams Digest            Mon, 28 Feb 94       Volume 94 : Issue  219
  11.  
  12. Today's Topics:
  13.      Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 25 February
  14.       Weekly Solar Terrestrial Forecast & Review for 25 February
  15.  
  16. Send Replies or notes for publication to: <Info-Hams@UCSD.Edu>
  17. Send subscription requests to: <Info-Hams-REQUEST@UCSD.Edu>
  18. Problems you can't solve otherwise to brian@ucsd.edu.
  19.  
  20. Archives of past issues of the Info-Hams Digest are available 
  21. (by FTP only) from UCSD.Edu in directory "mailarchives/info-hams".
  22.  
  23. We trust that readers are intelligent enough to realize that all text
  24. herein consists of personal comments and does not represent the official
  25. policies or positions of any party.  Your mileage may vary.  So there.
  26. ----------------------------------------------------------------------
  27.  
  28. Date: Fri, 25 Feb 1994 23:58:08 MST
  29. From: ihnp4.ucsd.edu!swrinde!gatech!newsxfer.itd.umich.edu!nntp.cs.ubc.ca!alberta!ve6mgs!usenet@network.ucsd.edu
  30. Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 25 February
  31. To: info-hams@ucsd.edu
  32.  
  33.                 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
  34.  
  35.                  DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACT
  36.  
  37.                                 25 FEBRUARY, 1994
  38.  
  39.                 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
  40.  
  41.                   (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)
  42.  
  43.  
  44. SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACT
  45. ------------------------------------------------------------
  46.  
  47. !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 056, 02/25/94
  48. 10.7 FLUX=096.7  90-AVG=107        SSN=053      BKI=2243 2322  BAI=011
  49. BGND-XRAY=B2.1     FLU1=4.0E+06  FLU10=1.9E+04  PKI=1254 2232  PAI=014
  50.   BOU-DEV=016,014,065,028,010,023,014,019   DEV-AVG=023 NT     SWF=00:000
  51.  XRAY-MAX= C1.4   @ 0418UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.6   @ 2328UT   XRAY-AVG= B3.8
  52. NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 2100UT   NEUTN-MIN= -004%  @ 0325UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.3%
  53.   PCA-MAX= +0.3DB @ 1110UT     PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 0955UT    PCA-AVG= +0.1DB
  54. BOUTF-MAX=55352NT @ 0642UT   BOUTF-MIN=55314NT @ 1914UT  BOUTF-AVG=55335NT
  55. GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+067,+000,+000
  56. GOES6-MAX=P:+118NT@ 1848UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-091NT@ 0815UT  G6-AVG=+090,+038,-032
  57.  FLUXFCST=STD:095,095,095;SESC:095,095,095 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,008,008/010,008,008
  58.     KFCST=3223 4222 2223 4322  27DAY-AP=008,009   27DAY-KP=1233 3212 3123 3332
  59.  WARNINGS=
  60.    ALERTS=
  61. !!END-DATA!!
  62.  
  63. NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 24 FEB 94 was  38.5.
  64.       The Full Kp Indices for 24 FEB 94 are: 1o 1+ 1o 2-   2+ 1+ 2- 1- 
  65.       The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 24 FEB 94 are:   4   5   4   6  10   5   7   3 
  66.       Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 25 FEB is: 2.2E+08
  67.  
  68.  
  69. SYNOPSIS OF ACT
  70. --------------------
  71.  
  72.              Solar activity was low. Only one C-class flare occurred
  73.        during the period which was not correlated optically with any
  74.        region. A 5 degree filament near S30E42 disappeared between
  75.        25/0027Z and 25/1421Z and an 11 degree filament disappeared
  76.        between 25/0810Z and 25/0824Z near N11W71. A new region was
  77.        assigned today as Region 7679 (N02E25).
  78.  
  79.        STD: Moderate Ca XV emissions were observed on the northwest
  80.        limb from the same area which had extremely intense emissions
  81.        two weeks ago.  A full-disk Yohkoh x-ray image has been
  82.        appended to this report showing the location of the enhanced
  83.        west-limb x-ray emissions and the associated location of the Ca
  84.        XV emissions.
  85.  
  86.             Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
  87.        low.
  88.  
  89.             The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled
  90.        levels for the past 24 hours. An isolated period of active
  91.        levels occurred during the nighttime sectors at mid-latitudes
  92.        with minor to major storm levels at high-latitudes.
  93.  
  94.             Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
  95.        expected to be quiet to unsettled through the period.
  96.  
  97.             Event probabilities 26 feb-28 feb
  98.  
  99.                              Class M    05/05/05
  100.                              Class X    01/01/01
  101.                              Proton     01/01/01
  102.                              PCAF       Green
  103.  
  104.             Geomagnetic activity probabilities 26 feb-28 feb
  105.  
  106.                         A.  Middle Latitudes
  107.                         Active                15/15/15
  108.                         Minor Storm           05/05/05
  109.                         Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01
  110.  
  111.                         B.  High Latitudes
  112.                         Active                20/20/20
  113.                         Minor Storm           10/10/10
  114.                         Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05
  115.  
  116.             HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all
  117.        regions.  A brief period of enhanced activity between 06:00 and
  118.        12:00 UTC resulted in minor signal degradation for affected
  119.        high-latitude paths, although conditions improved to normal
  120.        thereafter.  Normal propagation conditions will persist
  121.        throughout the next 72 hours, through 28 February inclusive.
  122.  
  123.  
  124. COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
  125. ========================================================
  126.  
  127. REGIONS WIT
  128. -----------------------------------------------------------
  129. NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
  130. 7671  N11W82  191  0190 DAO  05  004 BET
  131. 7675  S11E03  106  0030 CSO  05  003 BET
  132. 7678  S15E62  047  0100 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
  133. 7679  N02E25  084  0010 BXO  03  005 BET
  134. 7674  S14W56  165                    PLAGE
  135. 7676  N08E14  095                    PLAGE
  136. 7677  N20W51  160                    PLAGE
  137. REGIONS DUE TO RET
  138. NMBR LAT
  139. 7666 N18   350
  140.  
  141.  
  142. LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 25 FEBRUARY, 1994
  143. -------------------------------------------------------
  144. BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
  145.  0216 0217 0217                          140
  146.  
  147.  
  148. POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 25 FEBRUARY, 1994
  149. -----------------------------------------------------------
  150.  BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
  151. 25/A0027             B1421      S30E42     DSF
  152. 25/0140      0424     0526                 LDE   C1.4  226
  153. 25/0810               0824      N11W71     DSF
  154. 25/1133      1201     1243                 LDE   B8.1   70
  155.  
  156.  
  157. INFERRED CORONAL HOLES: LOCATIONS VALID AT 25/2400Z
  158. ---------------------------------------------------
  159.                ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXT
  160.       EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
  161. 63   S26W56 S32W62 S08W76 S08W76  184  ISO   POS   007 10830A
  162. 64   N60W22 N20W90 N24W90 N60W22  168  EXT
  163. 65   S34E16 S34E16 S08W12 S08W12  115  ISO   POS   000 10830A
  164.  
  165.  
  166. SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
  167. ------------------------------------------------
  168.  
  169.  Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
  170. ------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
  171. 24 Feb: 0311  0315  0323  B4.6                                         
  172.         0756  0836  0903  B2.9                                         
  173.         1757  1833  1900  C2.9                                         
  174.         2111  2117  2121        SF  7670  N12W66                       
  175.  
  176.  
  177. REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
  178. ------------------------------------------------
  179.  
  180.                 C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
  181.                --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
  182.   Region 7670:  0   0   0     1   0   0   0   0    001  (25.0)
  183. Uncorrellated: 1   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    003  (75.0)
  184.  
  185.  Total Events: 004 optical and x-ray.
  186.  
  187.  
  188. EVENTS WIT
  189. ----------------------------------------------------------------
  190.  
  191.  Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
  192. ------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
  193.                             NO EVENTS OBSERVED.
  194.  
  195. NOTES:
  196.      All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
  197.      and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
  198.      All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
  199.      associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
  200.      x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
  201.      optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.
  202.  
  203.      Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:
  204.  
  205.           II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
  206.           III       = Type III Sweep
  207.           IV        = Type IV Sweep
  208.           V         = Type V Sweep
  209.           Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
  210.           Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
  211.           Spray     = Limb Spray,
  212.           Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
  213.           EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.
  214.  
  215.  
  216. SPECIAL INSERT: CURRENT X-RAY EMISSIONS FROM THE JAPANESE YOHKOH SPACECRAFT
  217. ===========================================================================
  218.  
  219.                          25 February 1994, 03:30 UTC
  220.  
  221.                                     North
  222.                           . .         .              .,,::::::,,,,,,...........
  223.            ........,....,,,,,,,,...      ...      .,:;;;;;;;::::,,,,,,,,,...,.,
  224.          . ..,,,,::::::,,,,,,,,,,,,...........     ...,,:;;;:::::::::,,,,,,,,,,
  225.         ....,,,:::;::,,,,,,,,,,,:,,......,,........     ...,:;;:::;;;;:::::;;::
  226.      .....,,,::;;:,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.,..,...................,,:;;;;;----;;;;;;;
  227.    .....,,,,::;::::::::::::,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,....,...........,,;;--++-----;;;;
  228.  .....,,,::::::::;;;----;;::,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.......,.,,,,,,....,,:;++|||||+++---
  229.  ...,,,,::;::,,:;--++|||++;::,,:::,,,,,.....,........,.,,,,,,,,,,:;-|||||||||++
  230. ..,,,:::;;::::,,:-+||!!|||+;:::::::,,,,,,..,,.........,,,,,,,;:::::;+|!!!!!!!|+
  231. .,,,::;;;;:::;;;;;;-+|!!!!!|-;;;;;;;::,,,,,.....,,,....,,,,::;;;;:;;+!23222221!
  232. ,,::;;--;;;;;;;;---;;--+!13332|++---;;::,,,,.,,,,,,.....,,,,::::;;;-+24#@@#**32
  233. ,::;;--+;:;;;;;--------|112221!!!!!|-;::,,,,,,,.,,,,.,.,,,,::::;;;--+2##@@@#432
  234. ,::;--+;::::;;;------;;-+|!||!!!123!-;;;:,,,,,,...,,,,,,,,:::;;;;;;-+!4*####331
  235. ::;--+|;;;;;;;;---;;;;---||+||+-!21+-;;:::,,,,..,,,,,,,,::::::;;;;---+134**4211
  236. ::;--++-;;;;;;----;---++++++;---|!+--;;:::-:,,:,,,,,,:,,::::::;;;;;;;;+133421!!
  237. :;;-+++-;;;;------+-+++!!!|+-!13|--;;;;;;;:,,,,,:::::::,::;;;;;;;;;;;;;-|!!!!|+
  238. :;;-+!1|+++--------+-+||!||+++21+:,.,,:::,,::;:;:;;:;;::;-++--;;;;;;;;;;-||+++-
  239. ,:--|14*2!!!--------+|||++-;::,:,....,,,::::;;;;;;;;;::;-++++--;-;;;;:::-+----;
  240. ,:;;+|133|++-;;----+++---;;:,.....,::::::::::::::;;::;;;-----;;;-;:,,,,:---;;;:
  241. ,:;;;+||!+------++++--;;;:,....,,:::;;;;::::;;::;::::;;;;;;;;;:;::,,,,,;---;;;;
  242. .,,:::;;+--------+-;;;;::,..,,:::::::::::;;;;;:::::::::::::::::,,,,,,:;-;;;;;;:
  243. .,,,,:::;;-----;;:;;;;;::,,.:::;;::::::::::::::::,,,,,:::::::::,,,:::;;;;;;;;::
  244.  ..,,,:::;;----;;;;;;;;::,,::::;;::::::::,,,,,,,,::::,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:;;:::;:::::
  245.  ....,::;;;----;;;;;;::::::::::::::::,:,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:,::;;:::::::::::
  246.   ...,,::::;;;;;;:;:;:::::::::::::::,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,..,,,,,,,,:::;;:::::::,,:,,,
  247.    ...,,,,:::::::;;;;:::::::::::::::,,,:::::::::,,,,,:::::::::;;::::::::,,,,,,,
  248.     ......,,,,,::;;;;;;;::::::,,,:::::,,,,::::::;;;;;;;;;;;+-;;;::::::,,,,,,,,,
  249.          ....,,,::;;----;;;::,,,,,::,,,,,,,,,,,::::::::::::::::::,,,,,,,.......
  250.           ...,,,::;;;;;;;::,,,..,,,,...............,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,......... 
  251.          ....,,,,::::::,,.....  ......             ....................        
  252.           .............                                      .                 
  253.  
  254.                                     South
  255.  
  256. KEY: East and west limbs are to the left and right respectively. Emission
  257.      strength, from minimum to maximum are coded in the following way:
  258.  
  259.      [space] . , : ; - + | ! 1 2 3 4 * # @
  260.  
  261.      Units used are arbitrary, for illustrative purposes.  Get "showasc.zip"
  262.      from "pub/solar/Software" at the anonymous FTP site: ftp.uleth.ca
  263.      (IP # 142.66.3.29) to view these images on VGA screens. Remove
  264.      all but the image data before typing "showasc filename".
  265.  
  266.  
  267. **  End of Daily Report  **
  268.  
  269. ------------------------------
  270.  
  271. Date: Fri, 25 Feb 1994 15:00:37 MST
  272. From: ihnp4.ucsd.edu!swrinde!gatech!newsxfer.itd.umich.edu!nntp.cs.ubc.ca!alberta!ve6mgs!usenet@network.ucsd.edu
  273. Subject: Weekly Solar Terrestrial Forecast & Review for 25 February
  274. To: info-hams@ucsd.edu
  275.  
  276.                ---  SOLAR TERRESTRIAL FORECAST AND REVIEW  ---
  277.                         February 25 to March 06, 1994
  278.  
  279.                 Report Released by Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
  280.                    P.O. Box 357, Stirling, Alberta, Canada
  281.                                    T0K 2E0
  282.                     Accessible BBS System: (403) 756-3008
  283.  
  284.                                   ---------
  285.  
  286. ANNOUNCEMENT: The Solar Terrestrial Dispatch is pleased to announce the
  287. release of a major HF and refractive-VHF propagation software package known
  288. as SKYCOM.  It is a MUST-HAVE for anyone involved in ionospheric radio
  289. communications.  This significant software package will analyze almost every
  290. ionospheric parameter relavent to radio communications and will analyze the
  291. behavior and characteristics of signals that pass between any two points on
  292. the Earth and under almost any type of geophysical condition (geomagnetic
  293. storming, solar flares, polar cap absorption, etc).  Graphically ray trace
  294. signals through a real model of the ionosphere, generate extensive global
  295. ionospheric "weather" maps, produce broadcast coverage maps, and MUCH more.
  296. The list of available functions is far too large to list here.  For more
  297. information, contact "Oler@Rho.Uleth.CA", or "COler@Solar.Stanford.Edu".
  298. Pricing information can be obtained from the e-mail address above, by writing
  299. to us through postal mail, or by calling the recorded message at:
  300. 403-756-2386 (approx. 3 min).  A special offer applies until 31 March 1994.
  301.  
  302.                                   ---------
  303.  
  304. SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACT
  305. ----------------------------------------------------
  306.  
  307.   |10.7 cm|HF Propagation  +/- CON|SID           AU.BKSR  DX| Mag| Aurora |
  308.   |SolrFlx|LO MI HI PO SWF %MUF  %|ENH LO MI HI  LO MI HI  %|K Ap|LO MI HI|
  309. --|-------|-----------------------|-------------------------|----|--------|
  310. 25|  098  |VG  G  F  F  15 -10  75| 15 NA NA NA  00 05 15 35|2 10|NV NV LO|
  311. 26|  093  |VG  G  F  F  15 -10  75| 15 NA NA NA  00 05 15 35|2 08|NV NV LO|
  312. 27|  090  |VG  G  F  F  15 -05  75| 15 NA NA NA  00 05 15 35|2 08|NV NV LO|
  313. 28|  090  |VG  G  F  F  15 -05  75| 15 NA NA NA  00 05 15 35|2 08|NV NV LO|
  314. 01|  090  |VG  G  F  F  15  00  70| 15 NA NA NA  01 10 15 35|3 12|NV NV LO|
  315. 02|  090  |VG  G  F  F  15  00  70| 15 NA NA NA  01 10 15 35|2 10|NV NV LO|
  316. 03|  090  |VG  G  F  F  15  00  70| 15 NA NA NA  01 10 20 35|3 12|NV NV LO|
  317. 04|  090  |VG  F  P  P  15 -05  65| 15 NA NA NA  02 20 30 30|4 20|NV LO MO|
  318. 05|  090  | G  P VP VP  15 -20  65| 15 NA NA NA  05 40 50 25|6 35|NV MO HI|
  319. 06|  090  | G  P VP VP  15 -35  65| 15 NA NA NA  05 40 50 20|6 40|NV MO HI|
  320.  
  321.  
  322. PEAK PLANETARY 10-DAY GEOMAGNETIC ACT
  323.     ________________________________________________________________________
  324.    |  EXT
  325.    | VERY SEVERE STORM |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | HIGH       |
  326.    |      SEVERE STORM |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | MODERATE   |
  327.    |       MAJOR STORM |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | * |** | LOW - MOD. |
  328.    |       MINOR STORM |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |***|***| LOW        |
  329.    |       VERY ACT
  330.    |            ACT
  331.    |         UNSETTLED |** |** |** |** |***|***|***|***|***|***| NONE       |
  332.    |             QUIET |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| NONE       |
  333.    |        VERY QUIET |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| NONE       |
  334.    |-------------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|------------|
  335.    | Geomagnetic Field |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|  Anomaly   |
  336.    |    Conditions     |     Given in 8-hour UT intervals      | Intensity  |
  337.    |________________________________________________________________________|
  338.  
  339.                             CONFIDENCE LEVEL: 65%
  340.  
  341. NOTES:
  342.        Predicted geomagnetic activity is based heavily on recurrent
  343. phenomena. Transient energetic solar events cannot be predicted reliably over
  344. periods in excess of several days.  Hence, there may be some deviations from
  345. the predictions due to the unpredictable transient solar component.
  346.  
  347.  
  348. 60-DAY GRAPHICAL ANALYSIS OF GEOMAGNETIC ACT
  349.  
  350.          ____________________________________________________________
  351.      60 |                                                        J   |
  352.      57 |                                         J              JJ  |
  353.      54 |                                         JJJ            JJ  |
  354.      51 |                                         JJJ            JJ  |
  355.      48 |                                         JJJ            JJ  |
  356.      45 |                                         JJJ            JJ  |
  357.      42 |                                         JJJ            JJ  |
  358.      39 |                                         JJJ  M         JJ  |
  359.      36 |                                         JJJ  MM        JJ  |
  360.      33 |                                         JJJM MM        JJ  |
  361.      30 |                                         JJJMMMM        JJ  |
  362.      27 |                                         JJJMMMMAA      JJ  |
  363.      24 |                                        AJJJMMMMAA      JJ  |
  364.      21 |     A           A    AA                AJJJMMMMAA      JJ  |
  365.      18 |   AAA          AAA  AAA      AA        AJJJMMMMAAA     JJ  |
  366.      15 |   AAAA        AAAAA AAA      AAA    U  AJJJMMMMAAAU  A JJ  |
  367.      12 |   AAAA        AAAAAUAAAU     AAA    U  AJJJMMMMAAAU  AUJJ  |
  368.       9 |   AAAAU  U    AAAAAUAAAU     AAA U  UU AJJJMMMMAAAU  AUJJU |
  369.       6 |   AAAAUQ UQU  AAAAAUAAAUUU   AAAUUUQUUUAJJJMMMMAAAUUUAUJJU |
  370.       3 |QQQAAAAUQQUQUQQAAAAAUAAAUUUQQQAAAUUUQUUUAJJJMMMMAAAUUUAUJJUQ|
  371.       0 |QQQAAAAUQQUQUQQAAAAAUAAAUUUQQQAAAUUUQUUUAJJJMMMMAAAUUUAUJJUQ|
  372.          ------------------------------------------------------------
  373.                          Chart Start Date:  Day #362
  374.  
  375. NOTES:
  376.      This graph is determined by plotting the greater of either the planetary
  377.      A-index or the Boulder A-index.  Graph lines are labelled according
  378.      to the severity of the activity which occurred on each day.  The left-
  379.      hand column represents the associated A-Index for that day.
  380.      Q = Quiet, U = Unsettled, A = Active, M = Minor Storm,
  381.      J = Major Storm, and S = Severe Storm.
  382.  
  383.  
  384. CUMULATIVE GRAPHICAL CHART OF THE 10.7 CM SOLAR RADIO FLUX
  385. ----------------------------------------------------------
  386.  
  387.      ____________________________________________________________
  388. 151 |                                                            |
  389. 148 |     *                                                      |
  390. 145 |     **                                                     |
  391. 142 |  *  **                                                     |
  392. 139 |  *****                                                     |
  393. 136 |  *****  *                                                  |
  394. 133 |* ****** *                                                  |
  395. 130 |* ****** **                  *                              |
  396. 127 |***********                 ***                             |
  397. 124 |************                ***                             |
  398. 121 |*************               ***                             |
  399. 118 |*************              ******                           |
  400. 115 |**************             ******                           |
  401. 112 |**************            *******                           |
  402. 109 |***************          ********                           |
  403. 106 |***************          ********                   **** ** |
  404. 103 |***************      * **********                 **********|
  405. 100 |****************    **************          *    ***********|
  406. 097 |*****************   ****************  *     *  *************|
  407. 094 |****************** ********************* ***** *************|
  408. 091 |****************** *****************************************|
  409. 088 |************************************************************|
  410.      ------------------------------------------------------------
  411.                         Chart Start:  Day #362
  412.  
  413.  
  414. GRAPHICAL ANALYSIS OF 90-DAY AVERAGE SOLAR FLUX
  415. -----------------------------------------------
  416.  
  417.      ____________________________________________________________
  418. 108 |                                                            |
  419. 107 |                                                          **|
  420. 106 |                                  **************************|
  421. 105 |                              ******************************|
  422. 104 |                            ********************************|
  423. 103 |                        ************************************|
  424. 102 |             ***********************************************|
  425. 101 |       *****************************************************|
  426. 100 |  **********************************************************|
  427. 099 |************************************************************|
  428. 098 |************************************************************|
  429.      ------------------------------------------------------------
  430.                         Chart Start:  Day #362
  431.  
  432. NOTES:
  433.      The 10.7 cm solar radio flux is plotted from data reported
  434.      by the Penticton Radio Observatory (formerly the ARO from
  435.      Ottawa).  High solar flux levels denote higher levels of
  436.      activity and a greater number of sunspot groups on the Sun.
  437.      The 90-day mean solar flux graph is charted from the 90-day
  438.      mean of the 10.7 cm solar radio flux.
  439.  
  440.  
  441. CUMULATIVE GRAPHICAL CHART OF SUNSPOT NUMBERS
  442. ---------------------------------------------
  443.  
  444.      ____________________________________________________________
  445. 161 |                                                            |
  446. 154 |         *                                                  |
  447. 147 |         *                                                  |
  448. 140 |         **                                                 |
  449. 133 |   **  * ***                                                |
  450. 126 |   *** *****                                                |
  451. 119 |   *** ******                                               |
  452. 112 | * *** ******                *                              |
  453. 105 |****** ******              ***                              |
  454. 098 |****** *******            ****                              |
  455. 091 |**************            ****                              |
  456. 084 |**************            *****  *         *                |
  457. 077 |**************           ******  ***       *         *      |
  458. 070 |***************          ******  ***   *****    *  * *      |
  459. 063 |*************** *        ******* ***   ******   *  ***   *  |
  460. 056 |******************       ***********  *******   ******   * *|
  461. 049 |******************  *   *******************************  * *|
  462. 042 |********************* * *******************************  ***|
  463. 035 |********************* *********************************  ***|
  464. 028 |******************************************************** ***|
  465. 021 |******************************************************** ***|
  466. 014 |************************************************************|
  467.      ------------------------------------------------------------
  468.                         Chart Start:  Day #362
  469.  
  470. NOTES:
  471.      The graphical chart of sunspot numbers is created from the
  472.      daily sunspot number counts as reported by the SESC.
  473.  
  474.  
  475. HF RADIO SIGNAL PROPAGATION PREDICTIONS (25 FEB - 06 MAR)
  476.  
  477.                               High Latitude Paths
  478.             ________________________________________________________
  479.            | EXT
  480.            |      VERY GOOD |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  481. CONFIDENCE |           GOOD |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  482.   LEVEL    |           FAIR |***|***|***|***|***|***| **| * |   |   |
  483.  -------   |           POOR |   |   |   |   |   |   |*  |* *| * |   |
  484.    65%     |      VERY POOR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |* *| **|
  485.            | EXT
  486.            |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
  487.            |  PROPAGATION   |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|
  488.            |    QUALITY     |    Given in 8 Local-Hour Intervals    |
  489.             --------------------------------------------------------
  490.  
  491.                              Middle Latitude Paths
  492.             ________________________________________________________
  493.            | EXT
  494.            |      VERY GOOD |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  495. CONFIDENCE |           GOOD |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|** |   |   |
  496.   LEVEL    |           FAIR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |  *|** | * |
  497.  -------   |           POOR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |  *|  *|
  498.    65%     |      VERY POOR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |*  |
  499.            | EXT
  500.            |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
  501.            |  PROPAGATION   |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|
  502.            |    QUALITY     |    Given in 8 Local-Hour Intervals    |
  503.             --------------------------------------------------------
  504.  
  505.                                 Low Latitude Paths
  506.             ________________________________________________________
  507.            | EXT
  508.            |      VERY GOOD |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  509. CONFIDENCE |           GOOD |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| **| **|
  510.   LEVEL    |           FAIR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |*  |*  |
  511.  -------   |           POOR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  512.    70%     |      VERY POOR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  513.            | EXT
  514.            |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
  515.            |  PROPAGATION   |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|
  516.            |    QUALITY     |    Given in 8 Local-Hour Intervals    |
  517.             --------------------------------------------------------
  518. NOTES:
  519.         NORTHERN HEMISPHERE                    SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
  520.   High latitudes >= 55      deg. N.  |   High latitudes >= 55      deg. S.
  521. Middle latitudes >= 40 < 55 deg. N.  | Middle latitudes >= 30 < 55 deg. S.
  522.    Low latitudes  < 40      deg. N.  |    Low latitudes  < 30      deg. S.
  523.  
  524.  
  525. POTENTIAL VHF DX PROPAGATION PREDICTIONS (25 FEB - 06 MAR)
  526.    INCLUDES SID AND AURORAL BACKSCATTER ENHANCEMENT PREDICTIONS
  527.  
  528.                    HIGH LAT
  529.  __________________________________________________      ___________________
  530. | FORECAST | Given in 8 hour local time intervals  |    |SWF/SID ENHANCEMENT|
  531. |CONFIDENCE|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|    |F|S|S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S|
  532. |__________|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|    |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
  533. |       0% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|  0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
  534. |      20% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 20%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
  535. |      40% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 40%| | | | | | | | | | |
  536. |      60% | * | * | * | * | * | * | * |   |   |   | 60%| | | | | | | | | | |
  537. |      80% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 80%| | | | | | | | | | |
  538. |     100% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |100%| | | | | | | | | | |
  539. |==========|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|    |-------------------|
  540. |     100% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |100%| | | | | | | | | | |
  541. |      80% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 80%| | | | | | | | | | |
  542. |      60% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 60%| | | | | | | | |*|*|
  543. |      40% |   | * | * | * | * | * | * |  *|* *|* *| 40%| | | | | | | | |*|*|
  544. |      20% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 20%| | | | | | | |*|*|*|
  545. |       0% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|  0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
  546. |----------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|    |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
  547. |CHANCE OF |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|    |F|S|S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S|
  548. |  VHF DX  | Given in 8 hour local time intervals  |    |AURORAL BACKSCATTER|
  549. |__________|_______________________________________|    |___________________|
  550.  
  551.  
  552.                   MIDDLE LAT
  553.  __________________________________________________      ___________________
  554. | FORECAST | Given in 8 hour local time intervals  |    |SWF/SID ENHANCEMENT|
  555. |CONFIDENCE|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|    |F|S|S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S|
  556. |__________|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|    |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
  557. |       0% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|  0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
  558. |      20% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 20%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
  559. |      40% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 40%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
  560. |      60% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|   |   | 60%| | | | | | | | | | |
  561. |      80% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 80%| | | | | | | | | | |
  562. |     100% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |100%| | | | | | | | | | |
  563. |==========|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|    |-------------------|
  564. |     100% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |100%| | | | | | | | | | |
  565. |      80% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 80%| | | | | | | | | | |
  566. |      60% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 60%| | | | | | | | | | |
  567. |      40% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|* *|* *| 40%| | | | | | | | |*|*|
  568. |      20% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 20%| | | | | | | |*|*|*|
  569. |       0% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|  0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
  570. |----------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|    |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
  571. |CHANCE OF |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|    |F|S|S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S|
  572. |  VHF DX  | Given in 8 hour local time intervals  |    |AURORAL BACKSCATTER|
  573. |__________|_______________________________________|    |___________________|
  574.  
  575.                     LOW LAT
  576.  __________________________________________________      ___________________
  577. | FORECAST | Given in 8 hour local time intervals  |    |SWF/SID ENHANCEMENT|
  578. |CONFIDENCE|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|    |F|S|S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S|
  579. |__________|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|    |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
  580. |       0% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|  0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
  581. |      20% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 20%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
  582. |      40% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 40%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
  583. |      60% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 60%| | | | | | | | | | |
  584. |      80% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 80%| | | | | | | | | | |
  585. |     100% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |100%| | | | | | | | | | |
  586. |==========|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|    |-------------------|
  587. |     100% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |100%| | | | | | | | | | |
  588. |      80% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 80%| | | | | | | | | | |
  589. |      60% | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * |   |   | 60%| | | | | | | | | | |
  590. |      40% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 40%| | | | | | | | | | |
  591. |      20% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 20%| | | | | | | | |*|*|
  592. |       0% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|  0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
  593. |----------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|    |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
  594. |CHANCE OF |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|    |F|S|S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S|
  595. |  VHF DX  | Given in 8 hour local time intervals  |    |AURORAL BACKSCATTER|
  596. |__________|_______________________________________|    |___________________|
  597.  
  598. NOTES:
  599.       These VHF DX prediction charts are defined for the 30 MHz to 220 MHz
  600. bands.  They are based primarily on phenomena which can affect VHF DX
  601. propagation globally.  They should be used only as a guide to potential
  602. DX conditions on VHF bands.  Latitudinal boundaries are the same as those for
  603. the HF predictions charts.
  604.  
  605.  
  606. AURORAL ACT
  607.  
  608.                             High Latitude Locations
  609.             ________________________________________________________
  610.            | EXT
  611. CONFIDENCE |      VERY HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  612.   LEVEL    |           HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | * | * |** |
  613.  -------   |       MODERATE |   |   |   |   |   |   | * |***|***|***|
  614.    65%     |            LOW | * | * | * | * | * |** |***|***|***|***|
  615.            |    NOT
  616.            |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
  617.            |    AURORAL     |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|
  618.            |   INT
  619.             --------------------------------------------------------
  620.  
  621.                           Middle Latitude Locations
  622.             ________________________________________________________
  623.            | EXT
  624. CONFIDENCE |      VERY HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  625.   LEVEL    |           HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  626.  -------   |       MODERATE |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | * |***|***|
  627.    65%     |            LOW |   |   |   |   |   |   | * |***|***|***|
  628.            |    NOT
  629.            |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
  630.            |    AURORAL     |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|
  631.            |   INT
  632.             --------------------------------------------------------
  633.  
  634.                              Low Latitude Locations
  635.             ________________________________________________________
  636.            | EXT
  637. CONFIDENCE |      VERY HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  638.   LEVEL    |           HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  639.  -------   |       MODERATE |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  640.    70%     |            LOW |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | * | * | * |
  641.            |    NOT
  642.            |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
  643.            |    AURORAL     |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|
  644.            |   INT
  645.             --------------------------------------------------------
  646.  
  647. NOTE:
  648.      Version 2.00b of our Professional Dynamic Auroral Oval Simulation
  649. Software Package is now available.  This professional software is
  650. particularly valuable to radio communicators, aurora photographers,
  651. educators, and astronomers.  For more information regarding this software,
  652. contact: "Oler@Rho.Uleth.CA", or "COler@Solar.Stanford.Edu".
  653.  
  654.      For more information regarding these charts, send a request for the
  655. document, "Understanding Solar Terrestrial Reports" to: "Oler@Rho.Uleth.Ca"
  656. or to: "COler@Solar.Stanford.Edu". This document, as well as others and
  657. related data/forecasts exist on the STD BBS at: (403) 756-3008.
  658.  
  659.  
  660. **  End of Report  **
  661.  
  662. ------------------------------
  663.  
  664. End of Info-Hams Digest V94 #219
  665. ******************************
  666. ******************************
  667.